Is the UK North Sea Oil Sector its Last Legs?
During the 2014 Scottish Independence campaign it certainly seemed that North Sea oil was at the end of its useful life. We kept being told that independence would be a disaster for Scotland. We’d be bankrupt, not least because the oil was about to run out.
The Scottish Government White Paper on Independence used the oil industry’s own estimates of 24billion barrels of still recoverable resources. Then Sir Ian Woods intervened in the debate saying 15-18 billion barrels was more likely and that by 2050 an independent Scotland wouldn’t have any oil revenue income. (Ref: BBC, Aug 2014). Sir Ian doesn’t support Scottish Independence. That doesn’t mean he was being biassed in his estimate but his opinion was given a great deal of weight by the Unionist-supporting media (ie nearly all of the UK media) and less was given to the oil industry’s opinion.
Let’s start with this impressive statement of intent from Norway about its oil resources:
“The overall objective of Norway’s petroleum policy has always been to provide a framework for the profitable production of oil and gas in the long term.
It has also been considered important to ensure that as large as possible a share of the value creation accrues to the state, so that it can benefit society as a whole. This is partly obtained by the tax system.”
Yesterday was Derek Mackay’s big day – presenting the Scottish Government’s proposed Budget for 2018/19.
The Scottish Daily Mail headlined their Front Page with their take on what the budget means for Scots:
Scotland’s working population was 2,604,000 in Jan2017 (UKGov Source). The Mail says that 3/4million of them will be “hit” with paying more tax,
that is a bit less than 30 % of the working population. The 30% who are the highest earners in Scotland.
The Mail could have put it another way : 70% of the population will pay less income tax and the other 30%, who are the highest earners, will pay a bit more.
I guess that’s too many words for a snappy headline though.
What does ScotGov say? “7 out of 10 Scots to pay less tax.” That’s actually quite snappy.
So are middle class earners going to be “hammered” like wot the Mail says?
Here is what the changes Derek is proposing will do to your income tax bill:
To explain the green graph – showing the difference between income tax paid this year compared to next year when the changes come into effect:
overall Scottish income tax revenue will be realigned so that less income tax comes from lower paid workers and more of it comes from those with higher incomes.
average income in Scotland is around £24K. If you earn £33K or less and your income stays the same next year, then you will be paying LESS income tax next year than you are this year. (Mind you if you’re a nurse currently getting less than £30,000 then your income will in fact go up by 3% but that’s another story…)
from £33K upwards, you will be paying more income tax.
At £40K you’ll be paying about £40 more. At £90K, you’ll have £315 less in your pocket. Over the whole year.
To put that in context, £40K a year is about £150 per working day and you’ll be paying 15p more per day in tax next year. £90K a year is about £364 a working day and you’ll have an increased daily tax bill increase of £1.20 or about half a cappuccino.
To explain the blue graph – showing the difference next year between income tax paid in Scotland and in rUK:
it compares what someone living in Scotland will pay in income tax next year compared to someone with the same salary living in England.
it’s not quite the same as the green graph because there will be differences in when the various higher tax bands come into play. But overall if you’re living and working in Scotland and earning about £90K then you’ll contribute about £1100 more in income tax than if you worked in England. Thats about £4.23 a day out of your daily earnings of £364.
Hammered? Nah …
Just helping build a civilised, decent and fairer society,
as ALL of the increased tax revenue is spent in Scotland.
And as Nicola tweeted earlier today…
"There is no Grinch in the 'Nightmare Before Christmas'!! Is this more evidence that you can't believe what you read in the Daily Mail? ;-)" @NicolaSturgeon
I spent the day over in the Capital recently meeting a friend. She lives in Newcastle and we occasionally meet in the middle and have an ‘Edinburgh day’. After lunch at Henderson’s, we wandered up to the Castle Espanade and then down to Chamber Street to the National Museum. I didn’t realise it at the time but my camera was set to black and white. Its odd how the photos immediately look like they’re from the 50s! (Double-click to see larger photos)
I’m changing the habit I’ve got into of being reasonably active on Mondays – pilates – and Tues – tai chi and a swim – and Wed – all day at Citizens Advice Bureau – but then being rather too inactive Thurs, Fri, Sat, & Sun. So today being a Friday I got out my Nordic walking poles and went for a walk along the Firth & Clyde Canal from Temple to the Maryhill Locks. There and back came in at 5235 steps or 2.8km according to my iPhone Health app. The Health app told the My Fitness Pal app about the walk and MFP changed 5235 steps into 96 kcal expended.
But the main reason I’m talking about the walk is to get to the photos I took along the way….
But when I say they’re better than everyone else, I mean they are way, way better… Look at these comparisons:
The EU Parliament in Scotland runs regular events called Meet Your MEP. I went to one here in Glasgow with David Martin, Labour MEP. I really appreciated what he said and the Q&A session afterwards. The most recent event was in Edinburgh with Alyn Smith, SNP MEP. I’m on his weekly email list where he sends out a round-up of he’s been doing and what’s in the news regarding the EU, UK, Scotland…. These days most of that is dominated by Brexit. He posts links to the response to the Brexit negotiations in European media which I wouldn’t come across otherwise.
You can see me scribbling down some notes during Alyn’s talk and the Q&A afterwards. Most of what was spoken about referred to Brexit, its consequences for UK and in particular for Scotland. Here is the gist of my scribbles as accurately as I can make them.
What happened in the Brexit vote?
Basically voters gave the Establishment a skelp, for many it was the first time they felt their vote counted, especially in England. The leave vote wasn’t very much to do with pros and cons of the EU and how it works. A lot of it was telling the established politicians that people feel left out, overlooked.
And of course then there were the 350,000 EU citizens in Scotland, 2.5 million in UK overall, who didn’t get to vote in Brexit referendum.
Role of the media
They are not telling us about what Europe actually does and how it operates. They see their job as pandering to the prejudices of their readership, not to inform them
Our print media is owned by oligarchs like Evgeny Levedev (The Independent), Viscount Rothemere (The Daily Mail), Rupert Murdoch (The Times). They have influence about what and how is reported. That influence is then multiplied by the way broadcasting media, especially the BBC use it. Eg BBC News late night The Papers slot….
But the English media is widely read in EU and we look pretty bad to EU countries. It doesn’t help wider atmosphere outside the negotiations along if our media are seen to be pouring out toxic, misleading headlines about the EU. It certainly wouldn’t help our reception in EU if we moved to revoke Article 50 and the whole Brexit process.
They used to be jokey… They have become shriller and nastier now. The nastiness was built up by Farage and UKIP, but also by Boris Johnson when he was working as a journalist in Europe.
Farage is most successful political in UK. In twenty years, he has brought about a Tory Party that has lost its reason, and an opposition party, Labour, that is having to appease its Remainers and Leavers at the same time and which therefore won’t be able to take a sane stance on retaining membership of single market and customs union. It’s comparable to the similar effect in US politics brought about Tea Party on the Republicans
Alyn says it’s true that Farage applied for German citizenship after Brexit vote. There has certainly been a lot of media speculation about it as in this article in Politico.
Can Article 50 be revoked?
Yes, if UK asks for it to be revoked. See various articles by John Kerr, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, who drafted Article 50.
There’s no guarantee that the current opt-outs that UK enjoys would all still be on offer. But Euro and Schengen opt-outs would still be in place for UK. And probably the budget rebate, at least until the next budget talks, which happen every five years
Devolution under attack with the retaining of devolved powers
111 powers of Holyrood are removed to Westminster in the current Bill. Smith doesn’t buy it that they’ll be returned to Holyrood. UK is going in a different direction by using the Henry VIII laws. SNP have produced this video of what those 111 powers are….
With loss of devolved powers, the power of Holyrood is under sustained attack. What could Holyrood do? Devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales can refuse their approval for the EU Withdrawal Bill. Westminster could go ahead and pass it anyway. That would provoke a constitutional crisis.
Freedom of movement and access to single market is crucial for our economy. Yet currently Tories are pursuing a “hostile environment” policy to discourage EU immigration
It’s also crucial that we, and UK, keep access to EU Open Skies legislation which enables hassle free flights throughout Europe. Similarly important to stay part of Euratom; all of the radioactive isotopes used in NHS are made in Netherlands. We also need to keep access to EU university research funding
Our fish and meat industries have a huge reliance on EU people. For every one job on a fishing boat, there are seven associated jobs onshore.
Trade deals: CETA has been agreed only after a very long process. TTIP was seen off in EU remember . But after Brexit, Westminster could approve a ‘TTIP on steroids’ deal with US. Smith fears that UK will have a ‘fire sale’ under the pretence of Brexit and deregulate the economy.
Damage to Third Sector
We will lose direct EU funding to charities ; EU works round central governments to fund local projects. It will do damage to civic society which is already muffled by the lobbying act. And although EU funding could be replicated by UK, ministers are not doing anything about putting that into place
Holding a Second EU referendum
Even if rest of Uk doesn’t get the opportunity to vote on whether they want to go ahead with whatever Brexit deal is reached, we can give Scots a vote on the Brexit deal. If we do that, it can only be a choice of Brexit or Independence because we can’t offer anything else. And there will be no other other choice unless something shifts in English political thinking.
NI and Scotland: NI is going to need a special status in order to avoid a physical border in Ireland. And if it’s possible for NI, then it’s possible for Scotland too
Is EFTA a good option for an independent Scotland?
Would be OK half way house as an interim option . Smith thinks the best option longterm is to be a full EU member. EFTA is being promoted by Alex Salmond just now and he’s doing it to move the discussion in Scotland on to possibilities post-independence, ie promoting a discussion that takes independence as a given
I really like the Electoral Calculus website. It follows opinion polls and comes up with overall election predictions but also seat by seat predictions. It’s run by Martin Baxter. More about him here.
His current UK prediction is for a Tory majority of 74 seats. If she gets that, Mrs May will no doubt think it was worth all the stresses, strains, insults, lapses of memory, innumerable speeches to sparse hand-picked audiences, missed debates, etc etc and including the wee dash up to Crathes in Aberdeenshire to the local community centre where the event had been booked as a children’s party.
Current prediction for Scotland is an SNP majority of 41, i.e. 50 seats out of 59, which is six down on their currently held seats.
I don’t agree with the Scottish prediction. I know Angus Robertson is vulnerable to the Tories but I think his well deserved reputation and standing at Westminster as the leader of the SNP group will help him hold on. I hope the same happens in Perth for Pete Wishart. Oh and I so hope that we manage to get rid of Fluffy Mundell from Dumfriesshire. Also I’m not sure that this prediction takes into account the latest polling which has Labour and Tory at 25% each in Scotland. That will help SNP if it’s maintained.
Branklyn Garden is a wee gem of a place. It’s within the Perth City boundary on the north side of the River Tay and is run by National Trust for Scotland. No doubt when its creators bought the land in 1922 the road running alongside one boundary carried much less traffic than it does now. But even so, it’s a beautiful spot and even if there is some traffic noise it’s muffled and not visible over the high fencing and trees that edge the garden itself. It’s not a big garden. It was an overgrown orchard 1922. But it’s jam-packed with an incredible variety of trees, shrubs and flowers.
Back in 1922, the new owners were Dorothy and John Renton who wanted the land to build themselves a house and make a garden. Dorothy looked after the botanical side of things and John designed the garden. They lived there and their garden thrived. After their deaths in late 1960s, it was taken over by the National Trust for Scotland. More information here.
I’ve been here three times but never in May when I’d been told it is at its best so we drove up on Sunday afternoon. The rhododendrons and azaleas are in full bloom. The Himalayan poppies were delicately nodding their heads under the weight of raindrops. The lilies were showing themselves above the surface of the water. Newts swam around the pond before hiding under the lily leaves.
The cafe was open. It hasn’t been on my previous visits. So we strolled round the garden, stopped for a coffee, scone and jam, had another stroll and then bought some plants. And took a lot of photos.
iScotland = independent Scotland. It’s coming yet for aw that…. which is a neat segue into this video I found on YouTube of a French Army band playing La Marche des Soldats de Robert Bruce. You probably know it better as Scot’s Wha Hae. This is a quicker tempo.
Cette musique date de 1314.
A cette date Robert le Bruce, futur roi d’Ecosse, (Roibert a Briuis en écossais médiéval) défait les Anglais à la bataille de Bannockburn d’où cette marche. Plus tard il renouvellera l’alliance de son pays avec la France en 1429 au siège d’Orléans . Les volontaires écossais jouèrent cette marche lors de l’entrée de Jehanne d’Arc dans Orléans, et elle est restera le symbole de l’amitié franco-écossaise! . Cette marche et encore joué aujourd’hui par l’armée française.
So says a comment on YouTube underneath this video. Roughly translated as :
This music dates from 1314. At that date, Robert the Bruce, Scotland’s future king(Roibert a Briuis in old Scots) defeated the English at the battle of Bannockburn, this march’s beginning. Later in 1429 at the siege of Orleans he renewed his country’s alliance with France. The Scottish volunteers played this march at the entry of Joan of Arc into Orleans, and it continued on as the symbol for Franco-Scottish friendship! This march is still played today by the French Army.
There are quite a few recordings of the tune on YouTube. Here’s one from Bläserphilharmonie Rhein-Lahn.
At the end of August, I was on another sailing holiday with Skipper David Leaver on his ketch the Saltwater Gypsy. The first day we sailed from Dunstaffnage up to Croig a little harbour at the north end of Mull. Almost no wind to speak of so we used the engine all the up the Sound of Mull. The water was smooth enough to make spotting the porpoises pretty easy.
This is Croig on a sunny day with the mountains of rum away in the distance. By the afternoon when we were there it had started to rain….still a very beautiful place though.
From Croig the next morning we sailed over to Canna passing Muck and Rum on the way. It was a sort of rocking’ and rollin’ sail with a six foot swell coming across at right angles to where we were aiming for. Made for interesting spells at the helm! Some footage below. We anchored at Canna for two nights and had two walks ashore around the bay at A’Chill and up on to Compass Hill and round the cliffs on the north side of the island.
Last week I spent six days on board the Saltwater Gypsy in the company of three friends and David Leaver, the skipper. [Here’s a link to his website…… Northern Wanderer.]
Took the train up from Glasgow. Met up with my three shipmates in Oban, then went along to Dunstaffnage Marina. David welcomed us aboard and proceeded to give us the weather forecast – a Force 10 storm was due in from the south east the following evening. So we might not be able to leave the marina till Tuesday 🙁 On the other hand a Force 10 storm looks like this, so better safe at anchor than seasick. But come morning, the forecast was giving us the opportunity to run over to Loch Sunart before the storm set in. So by 8.30am-ish we were under way, sails up and heading across Loch Linnhe to the Lismore Lighthouse then up the Sound of Mull.
Once we were well into the Sound, David asked if anyone wanted to drive. (He may use terms like this but don’t think he isn’t anything but a first class ocean yachtsman, among many other accomplishments.) Rachel had first go. Then me. Then Dave said he’d just go below to make us all a cup of tea. Eek! I’m sure he’d have been up on deck instantly and taking over the helm if he’d felt the boat do anything untoward in the hands of me, a complete sailing rookie. Well not complete. I do have my RYA Dinghy Level 1 Certificate 🙂 The Saltwater Gypsy is a 43ft Seastream ketch though. Anyway it was all fine. Even if he did cast aspersions on my ability to steer a straight course.
It took 5 hours to get into Loch Sunart and anchor in a spot well sheltered from the coming southeasterly. He clearly knew his anchorages because the boat hardly rocked at all during the night although the wind was whistling through the high rigging. Come morning and the sky had mostly cleared, the sun made efforts to dry our wet gear, breakfast was on the table and noone was seasick, thanks to a few tablets of Sturgeron taken the night before.
By 9am we were heading out along Sunart towards Kilchoan village on the Ardnamurchan Peninsula; no rain, sunny intervals and a force 4 or 5 wind. At this point we didn’t know whether we’d be heading to Coll or Muck once we got past Ardnamurchan. It depended on the wind and tide. In the end the run north to Muck was the better option and we were there by lunchtime.
I have been to Muck before – for a Buddhist retreat in the early 80s . It’s changed some. Not loads. There is an array of solar panels behind Port Mhor and some wind turbines on the hillside above. Much better than the diesel generators we used! There’s a smashing community hall with community library, exhibition space, computer and wi-fi access, kitchen, showers, washing machine… all open to anyone, resident or visitor, with just a request for a donation. Oh and there’s a basketball court which can probably double as a village meeting space. I did wonder if there are enough people for two teams…. Biggest visual change is the new pier (EU funded) which allows the CalMac ferry to dock at the island. When I was there, the island boat picked up supplies and people at Eigg and brought them to Muck and if the tide was out making the jetty inaccessible then your feet might get wet getting ashore!
Over in Washington, Trump is preparing for his inauguration as 45th President of the USA. Elsewhere in the world, people are making know their opposition to his divisive rhetoric. One such protest are the Build Bridges Not Walls events. Here are more photos are of Glasgow’s contribution:
Day three of our sailing holiday, we set sail from Port Mhor on Muck and head southwest towards the Treshnish Isles, then southeast into the Island of Ulva. I hadn’t even heard of it before. It’s off the western side of Mull.
What a difference a day makes to the weather!
There’s a couple of typos in the video titles. It should say the Island of Gometra. And the basalts of all these islands is Tertiary, about 60 million years old, not Triassic which would have made them 200 million!
Day 3 of our sailing trip on the Saltwater Gypsy with David Leaver and by midday we’ve anchored off Cragaig on the southern side of Ulva. It’s not a big place, just 8 square miles.
The name ‘Ulva’ is probably from the Norse ‘Ulvoy’ meaning ‘wolf island’ though the Norse weren’t the first people to live on this beautiful place by any means. There’s evidence of Mesolithic and Neolithic settlement. And Celtic influence thrived with the Picts and Dalriadians. So it’s possible that people have lived here for over 12,000 years.
By early 19th century the island was home to about 800 people. In 1837, there were sixteen villages/townships, with shoe makers, wrights, boat builders, merchants, carpenters, tailors, weavers and blacksmiths. The 1841 Scottish Census records shows 849 islanders in total.
The traditional owners of the island were the Clan MacQuarrie. One of their more famous sons being Lachlan MacQuarrie born on the island in 1762. He left when he was 14 years old travelled to India and Australia and by 1809 he was Governor of New South Wales. But the MacQuarries were in debt and sold off the island. In 1836 it was bought for £29,500 by Francis William Clark, a Morayshire man. That’s about £2.5million in today’s money.
Then came a series of misfortunes. First of all the kelp industry, which helped support the islanders, failed. Clark was not an understanding land-owner. By 1848 the population had been mostly cleared off the land and shipped to Canada or Australia. Their roofs and houses were burnt behind them as Clark’s men drove them down to the waiting ships. Then Clark claimed their livestock as ‘payment’ for arranging their forced passage. It’s sobering seeing the remains of ruined houses. In the old mill at Ornaig there are two millstones still inside.
But aside from the sobering awareness of what happened here just 170 years ago, we also soaked up its beauty – deer on the hillsides, bluebells in the fields, buzzards in the air, and sun on the water, fabulous views of Mull and Treshnish Isles.
From Cragaig Bothy there’s a track running over to the ferry on the north side of the island. That’s where the Boathouse Cafe is too! But Sam and I stopped on the highest part of the track. Sat down on some warm rocks and enjoyed the view.